Oh yeah, wasn't it the 2000 election in which the state map from the 1860 election totally flipped? All Lincoln's states were Gore's, and all the others were Bush's?
I do think the granularity thing is key--because you're right, it depends on what level you're thinking about what your idea of it is. To take New Jersey as an example, there are a ton of Republicans in south and central Jersey (as well as many Democrats), which is a potent factor in state politics but almost never a factor in the presidential election. We've been safe blue for at least 20 years. Getting rid of the electoral college would force the presidential campaign politics to deal with that granularity across all 50 states, possibly.
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I do think the granularity thing is key--because you're right, it depends on what level you're thinking about what your idea of it is. To take New Jersey as an example, there are a ton of Republicans in south and central Jersey (as well as many Democrats), which is a potent factor in state politics but almost never a factor in the presidential election. We've been safe blue for at least 20 years. Getting rid of the electoral college would force the presidential campaign politics to deal with that granularity across all 50 states, possibly.