Sadly, President and Mrs. Obama will not get to welcome the world to their neighborhood in 2016. In the meantime, yay for South America! Slowly but surely, the Games are becoming truly global.
I do think Chicago being eliminated in the first round of voting was essentially a red herring--I attribute Madrid hanging on to the third round to Juan Antonio Samaranch's last-ditch appeal to cronyism, which of course the IOC under his leadership was well-known for, as well as the selection committee's lingering parochialism. Realistically, let's look at the Summer Games distribution since 1992 (first Games post-Cold War):
1992--Europe (Barcelona, Spain)
1996--North America (Atlanta, Georgia, USA)
2000--Australia (Sydney)
2004--Europe (Athens, Greece)
2008--Asia (Beijing, China)
2012--Europe (London, Great Britain)
2016--South America (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
So clearly there's been a preponderance of Games in Europe over the short and long terms. I don't think Tokyo was ever a serious contender for 2016 because of the 2008 Games taking place in Beijing (with the selection vote coming barely a year after their conclusion), but given that Tokyo was an Olympic city in 1964, I do think it's virtually assured of getting the Games again, and that its chances for 2020 or 2024 would be good if it went in again. Madrid, by contrast, probably doesn't have a realistic shot until 2024 at least, but by the same token, I think Chicago has an equally good shot at 2020 or 2024--particularly 2020, since presumably President and Mrs. Obama would still be around to campaign for their city when the vote transpires in 2013.
I do think Chicago being eliminated in the first round of voting was essentially a red herring--I attribute Madrid hanging on to the third round to Juan Antonio Samaranch's last-ditch appeal to cronyism, which of course the IOC under his leadership was well-known for, as well as the selection committee's lingering parochialism. Realistically, let's look at the Summer Games distribution since 1992 (first Games post-Cold War):
1992--Europe (Barcelona, Spain)
1996--North America (Atlanta, Georgia, USA)
2000--Australia (Sydney)
2004--Europe (Athens, Greece)
2008--Asia (Beijing, China)
2012--Europe (London, Great Britain)
2016--South America (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
So clearly there's been a preponderance of Games in Europe over the short and long terms. I don't think Tokyo was ever a serious contender for 2016 because of the 2008 Games taking place in Beijing (with the selection vote coming barely a year after their conclusion), but given that Tokyo was an Olympic city in 1964, I do think it's virtually assured of getting the Games again, and that its chances for 2020 or 2024 would be good if it went in again. Madrid, by contrast, probably doesn't have a realistic shot until 2024 at least, but by the same token, I think Chicago has an equally good shot at 2020 or 2024--particularly 2020, since presumably President and Mrs. Obama would still be around to campaign for their city when the vote transpires in 2013.